How People Form Opinions and How To Evaluate Them

When people come across a statement on which an opinion can be formed, they instantly form an opinion, mostly based on biases. The bias usually arises from relevant or irrelevant information previously gathered.  Once an opinion has been formed, they then search for support of their opinion. This is not the correct way of forming an opinion but I am yet to find a person who follows the correct procedure of first figuring out the support of all the possible opinions and then choosing the best one.

In spite of, people following the wrong way of forming an opinion a lot can be said about them and their opinions by seeing the kind of evidence they produce as their support.  I usually classify support in the following eight categories listed in the descending order of acceptance.

1.  Peer reviewed journal and conference papers: This is the best form of support anybody can have for their opinion and would have my immediate attention and the most chances of convincing me. A person with such a support would say something like this, “I believe X is correct because all these papers published in journal P, Q and R say it’s correct”.
2. Cumulative expert’s opinion: Sometimes you cannot find peer reviewed papers for your opinions. I in such cases if you can find a number of experts agree on an opinion, I would take that. A person with such a support would say something like this, “I believe Messi is a good football (yes football) player because a number of experts say so”.
3. Single expert: An opinion which is formed on the support of the verdict of a single expert or a very minuscule number of experts will draw attention but will not be sufficient to get me convinced. A person with such a support would say something like this, “I believe global warming is not happening because 2 % of climate scientists say so.”
4. Blogs: A number of people form opinions by reading blogs by other people like them. This can be very misleading since bloggers are often taken as experts while they are not. You need to understand that a bloggers opinion may or may not be backed up by facts and this will result in you having a very hollow opinion. The best you can get out of me by producing such support is a shake of a head. A person with such a support would say something like this, “I believe X is correct because I read it on a blog.”
5. Own Experience: A single person's experience can be a tricky thing and is really difficult to judge. This kind of support would be the one which would get me to do more research of my own on the opinion.A person with such a support would say something like this, “I believe X is correct because I have done X this way and it worked.”
6. Social Networking Sites: People actually do form opinions based on support from stuff posted on the facebooks of the world. Any evidence produced from a social networking site would at best produce ridicule from me. A person with such a support would say something like this, “I believe X is correct because I saw a picture posted on facebook which said so.”
7. Word of Mouth: Even fourth graders of South Park know not to trust word of mouth. This is the second worst form of support anybody can produce. To believe in something that you heard from someone else is almost as ridiculous as it can get. A person with such a support would say something like this, “I believe X is correct because my friend told me so.”
8.  Belief: And this is as ridiculous as it can ever be. A person with such a support would say something like this, “I have firm belief that X is correct” or “I have faith that X is correct.” Such a support is not even worth considering and would immediately convince me what you are saying is not correct and you are trying to protect your incorrect beliefs by shielding it with such statements.